Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, August 20th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory as the recent rollercoaster extends into another day. The major stock indexes are showing moderate losses, pushing the Dow lower by 72 points and the Nasdaq down 25 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32 (1.56%). However, weakness late yesterday should prevent much of an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates.

14/32

Bonds

30 yr - 1.56%

72

Dow

26,063

25

NASDAQ

7,976

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Stock Influences

Today has nothing scheduled that is of concern to mortgage rates. If there is an intraday revision to mortgage pricing it will likely be a result of a noticeable move in stocks. If stocks extend this morning’s losses, we may see bonds benefit, causing a slight downward revision to rates. On the other hand, if the major indexes erase this morning’s losses, we could see a small upward revision to rates before the end of the day.

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Tomorrow has two events that are relevant to the mortgage market. First is July's Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET. The National Association of Realtors will release this report, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. It covers a high percentage of all home sales in the U.S., but usually has a moderate influence on bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from analysts' forecasts. It is expected to show a slight rise from June's sales, meaning the housing sector strengthened a little last month. This would generally be bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because a strengthening housing sector makes broader economic growth more likely. But unless the increase is much larger than current forecasts, the report will likely have a minimal impact on tomorrow’s mortgage pricing.

Medium

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

The second release of the day will come during afternoon hours. That is when we will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a pretty good possibility of the markets reacting to them following their release. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation concerns in the economy, economic growth and the Fed's potential plans for lowering key short-term interest rates again. Since the minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during mid-afternoon trading. This is one of those events that can cause significant movement in rates after its release or be a non-factor. Therefore, be prepared for a move, but not surprised if there is no reaction.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


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