Newsletter-July 30th, 2018    
Provided by
Dana Bain
Dana Bain
Premiere Mortgage Services
11 Malvern Hill Road
Sterling, MA 01564
Phone: (978) 422-2311
Fax: (978) 422-2313
E-Mail: dana@bainmortgage.com
 
 

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates.  Existing home sales printed at 5.38M units.  This was lower than the expected 5.45M.  Housing prices continued to climb, according to the FHFA Housing Price Index prices rose 0.2% in May and were up 6.4% over the last 12 months.  New home sales printed at 631K vs. the expected 670K.  Weekly jobless claims printed at 217K and continuing claims, a summation of all receiving benefits, at 1,745K. Claims were expected at 215K and continuing claims at 1,751K.  Durable goods orders rose 1%, much weaker than the expected 3% increase.  We ended the week worse by 1/8 to 1/4 of a discount point.


LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis

Personal Income and Outlays

Tuesday, July 31,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.3%,
Up 0.2%

Important.  A measure of consumers’ ability to spend.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core Inflation

Tuesday, July 31,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.2%

Important.  A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption.  Weaker figure may help rates improve.
Q2 Employment Cost Index

Tuesday, July 31,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.6%

Very important. A measure of wage inflation.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Confidence

Tuesday, July 31,
10:00 am, et

126.5

Important.  An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment

Wednesday, Aug. 1,
8:30 am, et

175K

Important.  An indication of employment.  Weakness may bring lower rates.
ISM Index

Wednesday, Aug. 1,
10:00 am, et

60.5

Important.  A measure of manufacturer sentiment.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns

Wednesday, Aug. 1,
2:15 pm, et

No rate changes

Important.  Few expect the Fed to change rates, but some volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, Aug. 2,
8:30 am, et

215K Important.  An indication of employment.   Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Factory Orders

Thursday, Aug. 2,
10:00 am, et

Up 0.4% Important.  A measure of manufacturing sector strength.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Employment

Friday, Aug. 3,
8:30 am, et

4%,
Payrolls +215K

Very important.  An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.

PCE

The US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the core PCE price index.  The report provides the average increase in costs for personal consumption expenditures.  PCE is significant in that the Fed uses it in determining inflation as opposed to the prior use of the consumer price index.  The PCE includes the price of spending for and on behalf of households.  This includes health care spending paid for a household by a business.  The CPI only reflects out of pocket expenses paid directly by consumers.  

 

 
   MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-July 30th, 2018    

Home Status Report

Want to know if a home is still on the market, or if the price has changed? We can help. Simply fill out the information below and with no obligation to you we'll get back to you with your requested information. We guarantee your privacy.

Your Information
Property Information
There was a problem returning the RSS feed.

Mortgage Calculator

$
%
%
yrs
$