Mortgage companies, Banks and Credit Unions are subject to potential
daily and even hourly shifts in the market. Interest rates fluctuate on
the simple principal of supply and demand.
Mortgage rates trade based on Mortgage Back Securities and The Bond
Markets as well as the overall economy. The vehicles that mortgage
rates are based on are considered very conservative, stable and tend not
to have the wild swings that one would find in the Stock Market. If
the Stock market begins to see large increases or decreases, Investors
will shift Billions of dollars in and out of the Stock Market and move
them in to the Mortgage Markets. This will cause mortgage rates to
either rise or fall. Stock Market tanks, good news for Mortgage Rates,
Stock Market rallies and rates suffer. Investors and Traders will
constantly shift funds out of the riskier stocks into the safe haven of
the mortgage markets. These shifts can occur as little as once a day or
in some cases can happen multiple times during a trading day. Thus
causing mortgage rates to possibly change multiple times in a day.
These markets are affected globally as well; so even after the
markets are closed in US, whatever is happening in Europe, Asia and
around the world will cause our markets to move one way or the other.
Here are some of the variables that are being watched in today’s market:
Any of these items can trigger a rally one way or another. Even a
simple comment at a breakfast meeting by the President, the Fed Chairman
or someone in power is enough to influence the markets.
Additional Mortgage Rate and Index Information:
To help us understand why mortgage rates change, it is important to
realize that there is not one interest rate, but multiple ones. Below
are some of the most prevalent interest rates and indexes that also have
an impact on mortgage rates:
Prime rate – This rate is often offered to a bank’s best
customers. If you are shopping for a home equity line of credit, then it
is important to familiarize yourself with the prime rate. HELOCs are
typically based upon the prime rate -plus or minus a certain percentage.
LIBOR – Stands for London Inter-bank Offered Rates. Libor
rates are based upon the rates that a select group of London Banks offer
each other for inter-bank deposits. Many adjustable rate mortgage
programs use the Libor index.
Treasury bill rates ”T-bills” and Treasury Notes –
These are short-term and intermediate debt instruments used by our
Government to finance their debt. The treasury index is based upon the
auctions of U.S. Treasury bills or on the Treasury’s yield curve. Like
the LIBOR index, the U.S. Treasury index is a popular index for
adjustable rate mortgage products. Also, the Twelve Month Treasury
Average (12 Month MTA) is a popular index which is based upon the twelve
month average of the monthly yields of U.S. Treasury securities
(maturing in one year). The MTA is a popular choice for option arm
Treasury Bonds – Unlike T-bills and Treasury Notes, treasury
bonds are long-debt instruments. These bonds are used by the U.S.
Government to finance its debt.
Cost of Savings Index – often referred to as the COSI index.
This index is based upon the annual average of interest rates on World
Savings deposit accounts. The average is pulled on the last day of each
11th District Cost of Funds – Often referred to as the COFI
index – The COFI index is based upon the average of the borrowing cost
to member banks of the Home Loan Bank of San Francisco of the 11th
District. Unless you are shopping for an option arm mortgage, it is
unlikely that your loan will be affected by this rate.
Certificates of Deposit Index – Often referred to as the CODI
index – this index is arrived at by calculating the average of the past
twelve months rates of 3 month CD rates.
Federal Funds Rate – The fed funds target rate is the rate
which federally chartered banking institutions lend balances to other
depository banks overnight.
This is a lot of information to weigh each day when calculating
mortgage rates. In general, most Banks, Investors, Lenders etc. will
set rates around 10:30am once most of the morning economic reports have
been released and the markets have had time to react to the
information. In a calm trading day on Wall Street, these rates would be
good for that day.
In a day where lots of Economic reports and World events are occurring,
these rates can be reset a few times as the Markets fluctuate. It is
important to call your lender or bank often to check on these rates as
they can and will change. It also important not to follow online rate
sites that may be posting Average Rates as this information can be old
as well a different Financial Picture then you may have. The Freddie
Mac rates are based on closed loans from last week and an average of .7
Points of fees in the rate. This may give you a range, but not accurate
enough to base your mortgage payment on or what is happening today in
Loan officers at broker shops have an
advantage over those at big banks and mega retail lenders because they have
access to hundreds of lending options. They can shop around on behalf of their
borrowers to find the best mortgage for their needs. One borrower’s top
priority might be to find the lowest rate possible, whereas another borrower
may be most concerned with using the lender that can close their loan the
Whatever the situation, loan officers in
the wholesale channel have that flexibility to match their clients with the
right lender, program, price and guidelines. This means that they can provide
better service to more borrowers, giving them a great sales pitch for growing
their business. With the ability to accommodate more peoples’ needs, it makes
sense for loan officers or bankers to choose the wholesale route.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGGDVcQJk6g
Dana Bain Mortgage Home Loan Services Market Price Leader For Over 30 Years Strong! Highest Rating On BBB, Bankrate, Zillow.
Mortgage bond prices finished the week slightly positive which helped rates remain favorable. The Case-Shiller 20-City Index showed housing prices rose 5.7% as expected. Housing has been a bright spot in the economy showing steady gains. Consumer confidence printed at 122.9, better than the expected 120.3 reading. ADP payrolls data was stronger than expected. The US economy grew at a 3% pace in Q2/2017. Economists expected GDP to increase 2.7%. Personal income rose 0.4% as expected. Spending increased 0.3% versus the expected 0.5% increase. Core PCE prices rose 0.1% as expected. Weekly jobless claims were 236K versus the expected 240K. Unemployment was 156K versus the expected 173K with an unemployment rate of 4.4% versus the expected 4.3%.
We ended the week better by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.
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In the distant past the US economy tended to be viewed as relatively unaffected by economic activity in other countries. However, increased trades with other countries and an increased reliance on foreign purchases of US debt have generated a market awareness of trade-related issues. The exchange rate of the dollar and foreign trade flows are interrelated. One must buy dollars to purchase US exports, and sell dollars to buy imports. Likewise, foreign investment in US debt requires the purchase of US dollars, and is thus affected by exchange rates.
Each month the Commerce Department gathers an enormous amount of detailed data on exports and imports. The data is broken between goods and services trade. The overall trade balance is the dollar difference between US exports and imports on a seasonally adjusted basis. The report also highlights trade flows between the US and various partners. Since the mid-1970’s, US imports of consumer and capital goods have exceeded exports, so a merchandise trade deficit has existed. The US has always maintained a service trade surplus, and because this surplus is not enough to offset the merchandise trade deficit, a net export deficit has resulted.
Due to the overwhelming amount of data considered, trade is difficult to forecast, and can present surprises. For a variety of reasons, the financial markets will often be unaffected by surprises in trade data. However, the data still has the ability to cause mortgage interest rate volatility.
Rates remain historically very favorable. Now is a great time to take advantage of these levels. Dana Bain Mortgage Home Loan Services - Market Price Leader For Over 30 Years Strong. 978-422-2311 Stay Connected with me anywhere! danabain.mortgagemapp.com
Mortgage Companies & Banks use your credit score to make decisions on extending you credit. Five factors that affect your credit score are:
1. Payment history 2. Amounts owed 3. Length of credit history... 4. New credit 5. Types of credit in use
Message me for more information!
You can rely on my 35 years of mortgage experience. ;)
Dana Bain President Premiere Mortgage Services Inc. MA Lic. NMLS: 1498 NMLS ID # 18693
Justin Buck and Paige Nigh were on their third offer. They had put in two others for South Boston condos they liked, but no luck.
“[We] were outbid on both,’’ Buck said, so when it came time to make their third offer, their realtor suggested they include a personal letter.
“She just knew that we were in love with it. She was like ‘OK, you love this place, so this is what you need to do,’ ’’ Nye said.
She also had them include a photo of themselves (they chose a nice one of them dressed up at a wedding), and they kept their note short and sweet, talking a little bit about how they met, explaining that they had recently moved in together, and emphasizing that the place “would be ideal for the next chapter in our relationship.’’
It seemed to work.
“There were four final offers all above asking price but around the same price,’’ Buck said, “but we were the only ones to include this biography, and from what [our realtor] gathered, it was a deciding factor.’’
While the strategy seems enticing, the result does not appear to be typical.
There’s not much hard data about the effects of a personal letter, though in 2013, when the housing market was making its way back to prerecession levels, the home-buying website Redfin said the personal letter improved an offer’s success by 9 percent. (An all-cash offer, by comparison, increased the likelihood of acceptance to 28 percent.) So perhaps a letter could be one of the tools buyers use in seller’s markets as a way to make themselves stand out.
“I think it’s definitely helpful, depending on the seller,’’ said Buck and Nye’s realtor, Susan Doig.
“A lot of agents think it’s a waste of time, think it doesn’t work. I think that’s bad,’’ said Brendon DeSimone, brokerage manager for Houlihan Lawrence in Bedford, N.Y., and author of “Next Generation Real Estate: New Rules for Smarter Home Buying & Faster Selling.’’ “It’s a competitive market; if it gives you an edge, do it,’’ DeSimone said.
But not everyone feels that way.
“It could work against them,’’ said Christine Smith, a realtor with Haverhill-based Buyers Brokers Only and a lawyer. “Say they got their offer accepted and they wrote this lovely letter, and then they do a home inspection and find a couple things they want the seller to address. Not little things. The seller knows how much they want the house, and it kind of weakens [the buyers’] position.’’
Smith also posits that the exchange of personal information in the letter could be a violation of fair housing laws. Those laws prohibit discrimination against protected classes of people, discrimination based on race, color, religion, national origin, sex, disability, and familial status.
What if a couple without kids and a couple with them have similar offers and both write letters, she asked. If the sellers pick the buyers with children, are they discriminating against the couple without them?
This is a matter of debate among real estate agents, but Michael McDonagh, general counsel for the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, said he understands a buyer’s need to tell his or her story. “But I think there should be some caution there,’’ he said. “It’s not a good position to be in if you’re a seller. You don’t want anyone to accuse you of making your decision to sell to somebody based on their status in a protected class.’’
Matt Ramey, associate broker with Jacob Realty in Back Bay, doesn’t necessarily see anything wrong with writing a letter, but he isn’t wild about them. “I tell my buyers that the letter is a component, but it’s not a strategy. It certainly doesn’t hurt, but at the end of the day the dollars speak the most,’’ he said.
David Hollady, a former client of Ramey’s, agrees, but he also had a letter work out very much in his favor.
David and his wife, Nikki, bought homes in Boston and in Chicago a year and a half apart. (Nikki works in Chicago and David in Boston, so they split time between the cities.) They wrote letters for both. They had the highest offer on their Boston home and could close quickly, so the letter didn’t really seem like a factor. But when they were trying to acquire the Chicago property, Nikki wrote a letter to the elderly man who had raised his family in the home, telling him that she had grown up in that city and that they planned to raise a family there.
They beat out a cash offer. “There is no reason why we should have gotten that house, but it was because my wife wrote that letter,’’ David said.
Ramey said that’s the only time he’s heard of that happening.
Both Ramey and Doig said people with an emotional connection to their home, like an older seller who raised a family in a house, would be the rare kind of seller who would put sentiment ahead of cash.
Getting personal could also work against you.
If the seller is in the middle of a divorce or dealing with the recent death of a relative, he or she might not want to hear about your happy family. “It can backfire if the seller feels the buyer is trying to manipulate them,’’ said Lisa Steele, a realtor with Steele Associates Real Estate in East Dennis. Recently, a buyer submitted one with an offer, and although it was a lovely letter, Steele said, “the seller knew the offer was the only thing that mattered and brushed off the note completely.’’
And if it’s a bank-owned property, DeSimone said, don’t even bother writing a letter: “The bank isn’t a person. They don’t care.’’
And Ramey said: “There are more important things than a sentimental letter. Show your financial qualifications, show that you are serious about the house, then try and sprinkle a little emotion onto it with a letter if you want.’’
“You just really never know what [sellers] think of your life or what they think of their life that they’re moving on from.’’
If a buyer wants to write a letter, she encourages them to talk only about the house and the neighborhood, adding in a compliment or two. She will also pass on information about the buyers she represents at their request, but she said she tries not to let too much personal information get in the way of what is a business transaction. When she is representing the sellers, she paraphrases the buyers’ information so that she isn’t revealing anything about race or marital status.
But for someone for whom a letter worked, revealing personal details seems like a risk worth taking.
“I told [my wife] it was a crazy idea,’’ David Hollady said. “I told her that we shouldn’t even bother. We had an FHA loan, and who would even consider that?
“Not for the last time, I was wrong.’’
Mortgage bond prices finished the week higher which put downward pressure on rates. Trading was positive the first portion of the week with no data. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress held no surprises. She continued to state that inflation remains softer than the Fed would like, that the slack in the labor market continues to diminish and that future policy decisions (read rate hikes) are data dependent. The 247K weekly jobless claims were approximately as expected. Producer prices rose 0.1% versus the expected 0.1% decline. The core, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 0.1% versus the expected 0.2% increase. Consumer prices were unchanged and the core rose 0.1%, which was near expectations. We ended the week better by approximately 1/4 of a discount point. LOOKING AHEAD
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Federal Reserve Banks were created to control the central banking system of the United States. The banks are divided into 12 districts and facilitate the monetary system by moving currency in and out of circulation in accordance with the policies set by the Federal Open Market Committee. The Reserve Banks handle check processing, hold cash reserves and make loans to depository institutions. Each Reserve Bank regulates commercial banks in their district. The twelve districts include Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.
The Philadelphia Fed report is a survey of manufacturing businesses in the Northeast region. The report is valuable due to the timing. It is released before the month is over and is the second regional report released. While there are many other regional reports throughout the month the Philadelphia Fed report is considered to be one of the most valuable. It has historically shown strong correlation with purchasing managers index data and therefore analysts give it considerable attention.
Be cautious heading into the economic data this week. Thin summer trading conditions often lead to lackluster days of trading with minimal rate movements. However, thin conditions also can result in some wild swings from time to time. Understand the event risk before making overnight float/lock decisions.
#DanaBain #BestMortgageRatesInMassachusetts #BainMortgage.com #PremiereMortgageServicesInc #RealEstate 978-422-2311
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95% of Realtors that have responded so far have said NAR isn't doing enough to protect them from Zillow.
On today's National Real Estate Post (http://thenationalrealestatepost.com/where-is-nar-with-respect-to-zillow/) hosts Frank Garay and Brian Stevens ask Realtors across the country - What is NAR (National Association of Realtors) doing to protect their interests when it comes to Zillow. So far NAR's lack of response or action to this speaks volumes. Meanwhile Zillow continues to gather all of the housing data from Realtors and their MLS then they turn around and use the information provided and sell that leads back to the realtors.
Then there is the NEW "Instant Offers" from Zillow. Instant offers allows sellers to list their homes on Zillow for FREE and sell directly to investors. Where does this leave the realtor? Eventually Zillow will sell this lead to one of their Premier advertising Realtors. The realtor will provide a CMA to the seller and IF the seller chooses to work with the Realtor - then and only then - will the sellers contact information be provided to the realtor. If the seller likes the CMA provided and feels like they can handle the transaction they will proceed WITHOUT A REALTOR. Or they can hire any Realtor they choose to help facilitate the transaction. So picture this, the seller has an agreed upon price based on a CMA from a realtor. They choose to hire a Realtor but the seller wants to pay the realtor a nominal fee ($500?) to facilitate the transaction, after all, the seller and the investor have already agreed upon price and there won't be any need for advertising or marketing services like a normal realtor transaction. How long will it be before this is mainstream? This is only the first step for Zillow. Maybe it's me but I think NAR should get off the sidelines and use some of the $200MM it receives annually from it's members and... I don't know..maybe...protect them? What say you?-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In select markets today, the competition isn’t just from other neighborhood brokerages. It’s also from companies like OpenDoor.com and OfferPad.com, with attractive online platforms that promise sellers a quick, hassle-free, cash sale. This week, Zillow joined the fray, introducing its “Instant Offers” platform in two test markets, Las Vegas and Orlando, Fla. The platform enables sellers to receive and compare cash offers from selected investors, as well as obtain a CMA from one of Zillow’s paying customers, a Zillow Premier Agent.
For many real estate agents, these online marketplaces feel like a threat to their role in the transaction and their livelihood. Zillow, which makes a significant share of its revenue providing tools and services to real estate agents, has moved to dispel that concern, saying it will encourage, but not require, sellers to connect with an agent to close the transaction.
It remains to be seen whether Zillow will be successful enough to expand Instant Offers to more markets. If it does, the promise of a quick sale may capture some consumers’ attention. But many professionals say they relish the opportunity to compete and communicate their value as a real estate professional.
Read more: Zillow Offers $1 Million to Improve Zestimate
What would you say to sellers who are considering the option of a direct, cash sale? Here are six talking points.
If past performance is any indicator of the future, sellers will continue to gravitate your way. The National Association of REALTORS®’ 2016 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers showed that 89 percent of sellers worked with a real estate professional to sell their homes. Only 8 percent of home sales in 2016 were FSBOs, a form of which is direct sales.
Still, direct sales may pose other challenges to the industry.
In addition to competing for sellers’ attention, these online investor sales may exacerbate the already tight inventory situation many of your buyer clients are facing. Instant Offers, for example, connects sellers with a small group of investors who are partnering with Zillow. Sellers who go that route are taking their home out of the inventory for the average buyer.
Also, sellers who choose direct sales aren’t listing their property on the MLS. How will that affect the reliability of MLS data? Not just real estate professionals but also economists and governments use that data to spot market trends, determine fair market values, and make plans.
John Mosey, president of NorthstarMLS, which serves more than 16,000 real estate professionals in Minnesota and western Wisconsin, sees no cause for concern on that front. “We’ve dealt with things like the ‘coming soon’ phenomenon and off-MLS activity, and we’re seeing that these trends aren’t shifting FSBO numbers,” he says. “Our transaction volume in 2016 was $19 billion, and we’re in the Midwest, where market values don’t come close to the coasts. So you don’t need the off-market activity to get a true picture of what’s going on. I think the potential harm with these off-market listings is that a lot of them have never been market-tested, so it’s hard to get an accurate appraisal.”
If nothing else, Mosey adds, direct-sale platforms are yet another innovation that should make both MLSs and practitioners think more deeply about how to communicate their value.
Denee Evans, CEO of the Council of Multiple Listing Services, lives in Las Vegas where Instant Offers is being tested. She draws a correlation between real estate and her previous work in the financial industry. “Even when people began doing their own online trading, there was a healthy industry for financial planners. You need a professional to help you with that. There are too many little things to keep track of,” she says.
“Even with my real estate knowledge, I don’t buy and sell houses myself,” Evans says. “There’s no replacement for a professional who does this every day and knows the ins and outs of the market.”
Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates. Orders for durable goods, items lasting more than three years, fell 1.1%. That data was weaker than the 0.6% decline traders expected. Consumer confidence printed at 118.9, which was better than expected. Consumers may be feeling good because the value of their homes continues to rise. According to the S&P Case-Shiller report home prices rose 5.7% on an annualized basis. Rates were pressured all week as the heads of central banks in Europe, England and Canada all indicated that it may be time to begin reducing accommodations (read hike rates). The announcements from the ECB, BOE and BOC seemed coordinated. We ended the week worse by approximately 1/4 of a discount point. LOOKING AHEAD
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4.3%, Payrolls +138K
Factory orders data is a monthly report released by the US Census Bureau. The release is officially referred to as The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders.
The manufacturing sector is a major component of the economy. Investors use the factory orders report to attempt to determine the direction of the economy in the future. Orders are generally believed to be a precursor to activity in the manufacturing sector because manufacturing typically has an order before considering an increase in production. Conversely, a decrease in orders eventually causes production to scale back; otherwise, the manufacturer accumulates inventories, which must be financed.
Total factory orders break down to approximately 55% durable and 45% non-durable. Durable goods are items such as refrigerators, cars, and aircraft. Non-durables are items such as cigarettes, candy, and soap. The report is often dismissed due to the timing of the release. Durable goods orders are typically reported a week earlier making a portion of the factory orders data “old news.” While some analysts dismiss the value of the factory orders data others point out the fact that the report provides a more complete picture than the initial durable goods release. Revisions to initial data along with non-durable figures are factored in providing a more accurate look at the condition of the manufacturing sector.
#DanaBain #BestMortgageRatesInMassachusetts #BainMortgage.com 978-422-2311 #FirstTimeBuyer
The Federal Reserve Bank’s easing
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Dana Bain #DanaBain #BestMortgageRatesInMassachusetts 978-422-2311