http://www.telegram.com/article/20120126/COLUMN69/120129842/1002/business#.TyFXHb09pMs.facebook
Published January 25, 2012
| Reuters
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it will not raise interest rates until at least late 2014, even later than investors expected, in an effort to support a sluggish economic recovery.
Without making major shifts to its outlook for the economy, the central bank described the unemployment rate as still elevated and said it expects inflation to remain at levels consistent with stable prices.
It depicted business investment as having slowed, dowgrading its assessment from the December meeting.
Economic conditions "are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014," the central bank said in a statement.
Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, an inflation hawk who rotated into a voting seat this year, dissented against the decision. He prefered to omit the description of the time period for ultra-low rates.
As part of an effort to provide more insight on its thinking to financial markets and the public, the Fed later on Wednesday will begin publishing individual policymakers' projections for the appropriate path of the benchmark federal funds rate. That release is scheduled for 2 p.m. (1900 GMT)
If the Fed can convince financial markets it will be on hold longer than they had anticipated, long-term interest rates could drop as investors price in the new information.
"A significant contingent of the committee views this exercise not so much as a process improvement but more as an opportunity to ease again via the forward rate communications channel," Stephen Stanley, an economist at Pierpoint Securities, said ahead of the Fed's announcement.
There is also the possibility that officials will announce an explicit inflation target, perhaps a hard marker of 2 percent or a range of 2 percent or a bit below. The Fed has been debating a statement on its long-run goals, but whether one will be released on Wednesday is unclear.
While forecasters expect the U.S. economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate in the last three months of 2011, they look for growth of just around 2 percent this year.
Fed officials appear likely to bide their time in determining whether more monetary stimulus is needed. Many economists expect they will eventually decide on another spurt of Fed bond buying - probably one focused on mortgage debt.
In response to the deepest recession in generations, the Fed slashed the overnight federal funds rate to near zero in December 2008. It has also more than tripled the size of its balance sheet to around $2.9 trillion through two separate bond purchase programs.
The policy is credited with having prevented an even more devastating downturn, but it has been insufficient to bring unemployment down to levels considered normal during good economic times.
In December, the U.S. jobless rate stood at 8.5 percent, and some 13 million Americans were still actively looking for work but could not find it.
Analysts said the Fed's shift in communications will put an even greater emphasis on a post-meeting news conference by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke set for 2:15 p.m. (1915 GMT).
"The chairman is likely to remain non-committal to any additional policy easing, but he is likely to reinforce the Fed's commitment to 'review the size and composition of its securities holdings' and be 'prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate,'" said Millan Mulraine, senior macro strategist at TD Securities.
http://www.foxbusiness.comhttp://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2012/01/25/fed-to-hold-rates-low-until-late-2014/
PROTECT YOUR PERSONAL PRIVACY BY OPTING OUT!
Premiere Mortgage Services Inc. wants you to have your identity and personal privacy protected and because of that we highly recommend that you "OPT OUT" of having your identity be sold to other mortgage companies as soon as you have your credit pulled.
Unfortunately, we don't have the power to stop the trigger lead sales, but we want to be sure that you know how to protect yourself from being telemarketed from mortgage sales pitches.
Please opt-out of the credit reporting agencies’ trigger lead lists by telephone at 888-567-8688 or click here to go to OptOutPreScreen.com where you can opt-out of the "trigger lead" lists.
Don't be caught off guard by unwittingly becoming a trigger lead.
Say you decide to buy a home and get a mortgage. So, you call a mortgage broker recommended to you by your Realtor, a family member or a friend. Maybe this is a reputable mortgage lender with whom you've done business in the past. You complete a loan application and receive a letter of preapproval.
Then, out of the clear blue, a different mortgage lender calls you. The lender might say they are affiliated with a credit bureau or give some other red-flag reason for calling. Your suspicions are aroused. You wonder, how did they know you were getting a mortgage and why are they calling you?
When you apply for a loan, your mortgage professional pulls a copy of your credit report. This triggers an inquiry. The credit bureau then turns around and sells your name to other mortgage companies. It's not against the law for credit bureaus to sell your information to third-party vendors. This is called a trigger lead.
Stopping Trigger Leads
You're about to enter into one of the biggest transactions of your life, and the last thing you need is a loan rep calling you and offering up phony interest rates. Deal with a trusted professional, not some telemarketer. Don't ever buy anything over the phone.
Here are three ways to stop trigger lead harassment:
· Put your name and phone number on the National Do Not Call Registry. You can register your cell phone number as well. Do this at least a month before you apply for a loan because it takes 31 days to become effective. Make a note to re-register every five years because the order expires at the end of five years.
· To prevent mortgage lenders from sending you direct mail, you will need to register with the Direct Mail Association. Whether you register online or through mail, it will cost you $1.00, which can be charged to your credit card. Register early because the DMA distributes its lists quarterly, so it could take a while to become effective. This registration is good for five years.
· Sign up for OptOutPrescreen. This will stop the four credit bureaus from selling your name as a trigger lead. They are: Equifax, Experian, Innovis and TransUnion. The Fair Credit Reporting Act allows the sale of your name, but opting out puts a stop to trigger leads for five years.
Lenders tell me that by opting out, you can add 10 to 15 points to your credit score! For permanent restraint, you will need to mail in your registration, which is also available on the OptOut Web site.
http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/24/new-refi-rules-offer-help-to-more-underwater-borrowers/
The federal government on Monday announced changes that could make it easier for many borrowers who owed more on their home loans than their houses were worth to refinance into lower-cost mortgages.
The changes are aimed at helping homeowners who are current on their loans, but who have been unable to take advantage of historically low interest rates by refinancing because they are “underwater” on their mortgages. Ultimately, the government hopes the move will help stabilize the housing market, which has been stagnant due to falling prices and foreclosures.
Previously, to refinance under the two-year-old Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, borrowers could owe no more than 125 percent of their home’s value. But the Federal Housing Finance Agency is eliminating that cap, making the program available to many more underwater homeowners. Other changes include eliminating the need for most appraisals and scrapping many refinance fees.
Lenders are expected to get detailed information on the changes by Nov. 15; some could begin offering refinancing under the new rules as soon as December. Borrowers who owe more than 125 percent of their home’s value, however, likely will have to wait until early 2012, according to the housing agency.
As of Aug. 31, about 894,000 borrowers had refinanced under HARP; at least that many are expected to be able to refinance under the updated program, the agency said.
To qualify, your home loan must be owned or guaranteed by either Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, the quasi-governmental mortgage outfits; you can check this here for Freddie and here for Fannie. I found the Fannie site a bit frustrating to use, so another option is simply to call: 800-7FANNIE , or 800-FREDDIE. (Freddie and Fannie own or guarantee roughly half of all home loans in the United States).
Here’s some other details:
Think the new rules will help you refinance your home? Or is this just the latest federal mortgage effort that will fall short of its goals?
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http://blogs.smartmoney.com/advice/2011/10/24/will-new-lending-program-raise-rates/?link=SM_hp_ls4e
A new financing program unveiled today is aimed at helping millions of Americans whose homes have plunged in value, but experts say it may cause some collateral damage — rising mortgage rates.
Federal regulators this morning released details of a major overhaul that will allow borrowers to refinance regardless of how far their homes have fallen in values; previously there were limits. That could let another 20 million who until now couldn’t refinance to do so.
But while the plan is expected to remove other hurdles from the refinancing process, such as appraisals and some underwriting requirements, experts say the likely boost in demand for refinancing could lead to higher mortgage rates and longer waiting periods for homeowners. “It’s going to be a problem to some degree,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at mortgage-data firm HSH Associates.
Housing experts say there are two ways interest rates may play out. If mortgage rates fall between now and Dec. 1, when the plan will be rolled out, there will be a spike in mortgage applications as well as a rush of borrowers to refinance under the new plan, says Gumbinger. In that situation, lenders may take advantage of the extra demand by choosing to offer rates that are higher than the lowest available, he says.
Many lenders have already been charging higher mortgage rates. Earlier this month, the lowest rate offered by LendingTree’s network of mortgage lenders was 3.5% on a 30-year mortgage, while the average rate actually given to borrowers was 4.28%. That spread has narrowed since then to 61 basis points (3.88% being the lowest rate vs. 4.49% the actual average rate given) in part because demand for mortgages dropped.
To be sure, for most of these borrowers, the new mortgage rates will be lower than the rates they’re currently paying, since many bought their homes years ago when rates were well above 5%.
And if rates continue to slowly rise between now and the rollout of the plan, the spread between the lowest rates available and the average rates may not change, say experts, since the drop in demand for mortgages will be made up for by the influx of refinancers.
Along with the possibility of higher mortgage rates, it may take longer for borrowers to refinance, analysts say. In a healthy housing market, the process usually doesn’t take more than 30 days, but it’s now taking about 45 days, says Gumbinger. With more borrowers jumping in to refinance that period could increase even more.
If that occurs, experts say borrowers may want to consider locking in their mortgage rate so that the rate they’re initially approved for stays the same even if market rates move higher. Locking in for up to 45 days typically doesn’t come with a fee; at most, borrowers would have to make a small payment that could be credited to their closing costs or refunded. But locking in a rate beyond 45 days might require paying a fee that’s 0.25% to 0.50% of the mortgage. Borrowers have to consider whether paying this fee is worth protecting against the possibility of rising rates, say experts.
Many of the obstacles borrowers will face could come down to an issue of timing, say housing analyts. In general, December is a slow time for mortgages. Borrowers who want to try to avoid the crowds at their lender could benefit by taking a few steps over the next few weeks. That includes getting all their documentation, including proof of income, together and checking their credit report. Once plan details are announced, they should contact their mortgage lender to work on beginning the refinancing process.
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Lenders are expected to get detailed information on the changes by Nov. 15; some could begin offering refinancing under the new rules as soon as December.
Check back with Premiere Mortgage Services Inc. Dana Bain & Robin Dunbar Bain 978-422-2311 www.BainMortgage.com
http://homebuying.about.com/od/marketfactstrends/qt/10-Ways-To-Know-If-The-Housing-Market-Is-Improving.htm
To know if the housing market in any given year is improving, you've got to compare activity not only month-over-month but also year-over-year. Real estate markets move in cycles. Sometimes the market is up and sometimes the market dips. The mortgage meltdown of 2007 taught us in a big way that real estate prices do not continually rise. The housing market can crash. That 2007 crisis shattered dreams and threw the housing market into a panic.
Through sheer tenacity, I've managed to survive many volatile real estate markets from the past. During the late 1970s, interest rates were 18% and many first-time home buyers were priced out of the market. In the mid-80s, the tax reform act of 1986 had a seriously negative affect on the real estate market. We'll never forget the fall of the housing market that began at the end of summer in 2005.
Based on my experiences, here are my top 10 ways to know if the housing market is improving:
When you hear your neighbor's car pulling out of the garage in the wee hours of the morning after months of no activity, you'll know that your neighbor got a job. When the unemployment rate drops and people return to work, the housing market is recovering.
Too many for sale signs in your neighborhood means there are too many homes for sale and generally not enough buyers to buy them. Excess inventory pushes down sales prices.
It doesn't matter whether you track home sales by per-square-foot price, average or median prices, when the market is depressed, they all fall. Compare median sales prices this year to median prices last year. Steady increases mean the market is improving.
When demand is on the rise, homes sell quickly and the days on market are reduced. A starter home that is attractively priced in good condition and a desirable location should typically sell within 30 to 60 days.
Little shows more faith in a budding economy than when entrepreneurs strike out and open a new neighborhood business. When you spot the boards coming off of a closed up shop and a new sign goes on the building, it means a recovery is underway.
When you no longer have to ask if the home for sale is a foreclosure or a short sale, the market is turning around. When traditional sellers feel the market is stable enough, they will put their homes on the market because those sellers will have equity.
In down real estate markets, real estate agents tend to leave the business in droves and real estate companies downsize. When business is improving, real estate companies expand and hire more agents because their phones are ringing with Floor calls from buyers.
When financing is scarce, the cost of lending that money goes up. When plenty of money is available to lend, interest rates fall. Lower interest rates equal a higher purchasing power for buyers and stimulate the housing market.
The National Association of REALTORS' Housing Affordability Index tracks the percentage of buyers who can afford to buy a home. The higher the percentage, the lower the income that is required to qualify for a mortgage.
During troubled times, typically the only sellers who sell a home are those who must due to circumstances beyond their control such as a job transfer, divorce or they can't afford to make their mortgage payment. Many of those sellers do not buy another home. The move-up market becomes stagnant. In a more balanced market, it's not only a good time to sell but also a good time to buy a home.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYqoFIiXhOc
Homeownership is down and it needs to increase
http://blog.hsh.com/index.php/2011/07/homeownership-is-down-and-it-needs-to-increase/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+hsh+%28blog.hsh.com%29
Fewer and fewer of us are buying homes.
That’s not a surprise.
What’s a surprise is one alleged reason for our falling homeownership rate. According to a new study from the Mortgage Bankers Association, “Sharp declines in house prices served as a catalyst for the 2007 meltdown in mortgage and capital markets and the downturn in the global economy.”
This reasoning confuses cause and effect. Falling home prices were the result of the erosion of mortgage norms, NOT the cause of a mortgage meltdown.
The causes of the mortgage meltdown
Don’t believe me? Let’s go to the tape….
“High risk mortgage lending and shortcomings in consumer protections for mortgage borrowers were among the most important underlying causes of the housing bubble and the financial crisis that resulted,” said former FDIC chair Sheila Bair.
“Not only did the proliferation of high-risk subprime and nontraditional mortgage products help to push home prices up during the boom, but excessive reliance on foreclosure as a remedy to default has helped to push home prices down since the peak of the market over four years ago.”
Homeownership levels need to remain high
According to the MBA:
In 2000, U.S. homeownership rates stood at roughly 67 percent, the highest level recorded to that point in time. That rate jumped to a new all-time high of 69.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004 and remained at roughly that level through the middle of 2006. With the onset of the 2007 financial crisis, homeownership rates have dropped, falling to 66.4 percent in the first quarter of 2011.
As ownership levels decrease, the number of vacant homes increase, making it more difficult to construct new homes and benefit from the jobs, local taxes and spending which new homes create and which our economy desperately needs.
Moreover, vacancies can create real problems if the properties are not correctly managed or repurposed into rental housing.
An excess of homes holds down prices. For this reason it’s difficult for a current homeowner to sell a property and move-up. That means the owner of the more expensive property is also less able to sell.
Mortgage rates are also impacted by the problem of surplus homes. Today's mortgage rates http://www.bainmortgage.com/RateSheet are surely lower because there is less competition for financing. That’s good news if you need a loan, not good if you want to restore the economy.
More owners seems unlikely at the moment
Can we again increase homeownership?
In the short term–the next few years–this seems very unlikely. We have a huge number of foreclosed properties which are owned by lenders, properties which need to be re-sold and placed back into the inventory of occupied homes. The problem here is that the ownership of these properties–and the grounds for their foreclosure–are no longer so clear as a result of the robo-signing scandal.
Also, those who have lost their homes to foreclosure are not likely to qualify for a new mortgage for several years to come (in most cases). In particular, those who have “walked away” from a mortgage are unlikely to get new financing for many, many years.
Lastly, high rates of unemployment mean large numbers of potential buyers are unable to qualify for financing. No matter how much someone wants a house, no matter how low today's mortgage rates http://www.bainmortgage.com/RateSheet might be, it doesn’t matter if household income is insufficient.
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Dana Bain & Robin Dunbar Bain
Don't believe the hype -- you can't shop for loans by APR. APR is the most easily manipulated number in the mortgage business.
What Is "APR"?
More commonly called APR, Annual Percentage Rate is a government-made math formula. It aims to measure the total cost of borrowing over the life of a loan.
APR is equal to (your loan size) + (your loan costs) + (your interest charges over time).
You can find your APR printed on the top-left corner of your Federal Truth-In-Lending Disclosure, as shown above.
After taking an application, when quoting an interest rate, loan officers are required to disclose a loan's APR to you, too. This is for consumer protection reasons; APR is supposed to make clear the best of two or more loan options.
APR is touted as an "apples-to-apples" comparison tool. It fails, however.
APR can't be used to make an apples-to-apples comparison because the loan with the lowest APR isn't always best for you.
APR Can't Be Your "Apples-To-Apples" Tool
Banks and lenders love to promote "low APR loans" online. Unfortunately, low APR doesn't translate to "good deal".
The APR formula is flawed. It makes assumptions about the future, and predicting the future is impossible.
The biggest APR assumption is that you'll hold your mortgage for its full term, and never pay it sooner. It assumes you won't refinance or sell. In other words, if your loan is a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, the APR is based on a full 30-year term. If you sell or refinance prior to Year 30, the math used to make your APR becomes instantly flawed and "wrong".
This is a big deal when comparing loans with points to loans without points.
If we only looked at APR, a loan with points will have a lower APR in nearly all cases. This is because loans with points have lower interest rates which means fewer interest charges over 30 years. However, if you were to sell or refinance within the first few years, the long-term savings of a lower rate are never realized.
In this example, the higher APR loan would have been the better choice.
APR is affected by other assumptions, too.
First, loan costs are included in the APR formula and third-party costs such as appraisal and title services are sometimes unknown at the start of a loan. As a result, banks may inadvertently understate them.
This would make the APR appear lower than what it really is, and can misdirect a consumer to the wrong loan.
And, second, for adjustable-rate loans, APR has to make assumptions about how a loan will adjust during its 30-year term. If two lenders use different set of assumptions, their APRs will differ -- even if the loans are identical in every other way.
The lender whose adjustments are most aggressively-low will present the lowest APR.
This, too, can misdirect a consumer.
APR is not the metric for comparing mortgages -- it's a metric. And, sometimes, the best way is the easiest way. Look at rates and look at fees. Beyond that, the rest can be smoke-and-mirrors.
Each quarter, Fannie Mae releases their National Housing Survey. They survey the American public on a multitude of questions concerning today’s housing market. We like to pull out some of the findings we deem most interesting each time it is released. Here they are for the most recent report:
When we talk about homeownership today, it seems that the financial aspects always jump to the front of the discussion. However, the study shows that the four major reasons a person buys a home have nothing to do with money. The top four reasons, in order, are:
Though most people purchase a home for non-financial reasons, everyone realizes their is a money component to homeownership. Here is what they said on this issue:
We are always interested in the difference people see in renting vs. owning.
Our belief in the value of homeownership grows each time this survey is released.
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Dana Bain
Premiere Mortgage Services Inc. 978-422-2311
Massachusetts License Number MB1498 Licensed by the State of New Hampshire Banking Department- License Number 5430-MBR Premiere Mortgage Services Inc. NMLS #1498 is a licensed broker and not a lender. We arrange but do not make loans. Dana Bain NMLS #18693 Robin Dunbar Bain NMLS #18699 Privacy Policy
Massachusetts License Number MB1498
Licensed by the State of New Hampshire Banking Department- License Number 5430-MBR
Premiere Mortgage Services Inc. NMLS #1498 is a licensed broker and not a lender.
We arrange but do not make loans.
Dana Bain NMLS #18693
Robin Dunbar Bain NMLS #18699
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