Premiere Mortgage Services Inc. - Dana Bain

Newsletter-April 30th, 2018     
Provided by
Dana Bain
Dana Bain
Premiere Mortgage Services
11 Malvern Hill Road
Sterling, MA 01564
Phone: (978) 422-2311
Fax: (978) 422-2313
E-Mail: dana@bainmortgage.com
 
 

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates. We started with sharply higher rates as data showed economic strength. New home sales were 694K versus the expected 631K. Consumer confidence was 128.7. Analysts looked for a reading of 126. The 10Y hit the key psychological 3% mark for the first time since January 2014. Weekly jobless claims were 209K which was the lowest reading since 1969. Durable goods orders rose 2.6% versus the expected 2.3% increase. However, ex-auto orders were unchanged versus an expected 0.7% increase. Q1 Gross Domestic Product rose 2.3% versus the expected 2.1% increase. Employment cost index rose 0.8% which was 0.1% higher than expected. We ended the week worse by 1/8 to 1/4 of a discount point.


LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis

Personal Income and Outlays

Monday, April 30,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.4%,
Up 0.1% 
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core Inflation

Monday, April 30,
8:30 am, et 

Up 0.2%

Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.
ISM Index

Tuesday, May 1,
10:00 am, et

59.6

Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment

Wednesday, May 2,
8:30 am, et

242K

Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns

Wednesday, May 2,
2:15 pm, et 

No rate changes

Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but some volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Preliminary Q1 Productivity

Thursday, May 3,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.8%

Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Trade Data

Thursday, May 3,
8:30 am, et

$58B deficit

Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, May 3,
8:30 am, et

208K

Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Factory Orders

Thursday, May 3,
10:00 am, et

Up 0.9%

Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Employment

Friday, May 4,
8:30 am, et

4.1%,
Payrolls +120K

Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.

Jobs

Keep a sharp eye on the various employment related data this week. Last week’s weekly jobless claims hit levels not seen in over 40 years. The data showed 209,000 new applications for unemployment. Analysts expected a number around 230,000. It is not uncommon for the weekly figures to miss estimates but the sharply lower figure was a very strong indicator that the U.S. economy continued to add jobs. The Fed is clear on their course to raise rates. Strong employment data supports the call for rate hikes sooner rather than later.

 

 

Dana Bain Stay connected with me anywhere at danabain.mortgagemapp.com
978-422-2311
 
   MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEWNewsletter-April 30th, 2018     

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Posted by Dana Bain on April 27th, 2018 3:20 PM

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